technology and society

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The Futures Cone: A Framework for Exploring What Could Be

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How one deceptively simple tool can transform the way you think about uncertainty, possibility, and the choices that shape tomorrow.

There's a habit most of us share when it comes to thinking about the future: we treat it as a destination. A singular, somewhat “predictable” place that today's trends are quietly marching toward. It's a useful shorthand — but as a mental model, it's quietly limiting.

The Futures Cone, a foundational tool in the field of futures studies, offers a different way of seeing. Rather than imagining the future as a point, it asks you to imagine it as a cone — wide open, expanding outward from the present moment, filled with layers of possibility that range from the likely to the genuinely unthinkable.

How the Cone Works

The narrowest point is now. As the cone extends outward through time, it widens to reveal different regions of possible futures, each defined by how much disruption or change would be required to bring them about:

Projected futures — the baseline; what happens if nothing changes

Probable futures — where current trends are pointing

Plausible futures — what could happen given known forces and trajectories

Possible futures — speculative, requiring future knowledge we don't yet have

Preposterous futures — the outer edge; scenarios that challenge our deepest assumptions about what is physically or socially feasible

Threaded through all of these is the Preferable future — not a separate ring, but a cross-section that asks: given everything in this cone, what do we actually want? Where do our values point?

The Dator-Clarke Line

One of the most provocative ideas associated with the cone is what's referred to as the Dator-Clarke Line — drawn from futurist James Dator's claim that any genuinely useful idea about the future should, at first glance, appear ridiculous. Paired with Arthur C. Clarke's observation that the only way to find the limits of the possible is to push into the impossible, it suggests that the most valuable futures work happens precisely in the uncomfortable space at the edge of the cone.

The practical implication is significant: if every idea your team generates sounds reasonable, you probably haven't stretched far enough. The preposterous isn't a failure of imagination — it's a boundary worth exploring.

Why This Tool Matters Now

In a period defined by technological acceleration, geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid social change, the instinct to "project forward" can feel reassuring — but it's also where strategic blind spots form. The Futures Cone doesn't resolve that uncertainty. Instead, it gives individuals, teams, and organizations a shared language for navigating it: a structured way to ask not just "what will happen?" but "what could happen, what might we prefer, and what are we willing to do about it?"

This is the subject of Episode 74 of Modem Futura, in which we walk through the cone layer by layer — and then demonstrate it live with a thought experiment that starts with frogs and ends somewhere near the moons of Jupiter.

Subscribe and Connect!

Subscribe to Modem Futura wherever you get your podcasts and connect with us on LinkedIn. Drop a comment, pose a question, or challenge an idea—because the future isn’t something we watch happen, it’s something we build together. The medium may still be the massage, but we all have a hand in shaping how it touches tomorrow.

🎧 Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/4bz1tIC

🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/20Hz36eLfZ90M6EifUrRuu?si=swNkzHWZSLCelVSKsAyj7A

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/wc_e3dsY-vw

🌐 Website: https://www.modemfutura.com/   

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What Old iPods and Tiny Cameras Teach Us About Technology, Ownership, and Being Human

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There's a moment in this episode of Modem Futura where two grown adults are hunched over a miniature Polaroid camera, watching a blurry selfie slowly develop — and laughing about it. It's objectively a terrible photograph. But it captures something that most modern technology has quietly optimized away: surprise, imperfection, and the distinctly human joy of not knowing exactly what you're going to get.

This episode began with a box of old iPods — tangled cables, dead batteries, and all — and evolved into a wide-ranging conversation about what we trade away every time we upgrade to something faster, thinner, and more connected. The themes are ones that touch anyone who has ever felt a pang of something unnamed while scrolling through an infinite library of music and being unable to choose a single song.

Ownership in the age of access. The iPods in the conversation are air-gapped — no internet connection, no cloud sync, no subscription. The music on them belongs to their owner in a way that a Spotify library simply does not. This distinction matters more than it might seem, especially when you consider that digital books, photos, and music can disappear when a service shuts down or an account holder passes away. The question of digital legacy — who inherits your cloud — is one most people haven't thought through yet.

Craft, care, and the "fast food" of technology. Sean raises a pointed observation about a recently released video game that shipped with fewer features than its predecessor from a decade ago. It's a pattern that extends well beyond gaming: the pressure to release fast increasingly overrides the commitment to release well. When did "good enough" become the standard?

The paradox of abundance. One of the episode's most compelling threads is the tension between scarcity and surplus. Limited storage on an old iPod forced intentional curation — playlists that became personal time capsules. Unlimited streaming offers everything and, paradoxically, can deliver less meaning. Andrew's students, however, offer a counterpoint: raised in abundance, they've developed their own sophisticated habits of curation and care. Perhaps the pendulum is already swinging.

Imperfection as a feature. The tiny Kodak keychain camera. The Polaroid with its gloriously blurry output. The analog photograph whose chemistry introduces an element of chance. These aren't failures of technology — they're reminders that the most human experiences are often the least predictable ones.

This episode doesn't offer prescriptions. It offers an invitation: to notice, to question, and to be intentional about the role technology plays in your life before someone else makes that choice for you.

🎧 Listen to Episode 73 of Modem Futura — available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you listen.

Subscribe and Connect!

Subscribe to Modem Futura wherever you get your podcasts and connect with us on LinkedIn. Drop a comment, pose a question, or challenge an idea—because the future isn’t something we watch happen, it’s something we build together. The medium may still be the massage, but we all have a hand in shaping how it touches tomorrow.

🎧 Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/4b3P8L8

🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2UNsDaZox2jdEb1QYN1m44?si=FUkqjQ0gSEecnYyrjKfoVA

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/UKC7UHkGNJQ

🌐 Website: https://www.modemfutura.com/   

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Vibe Coding and the Return of Personal Software

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Vintage styled computer terminal with the text "What will you build today?" displayed on screen

The Echo of Early Personal Computing

There was a brief, electric moment in the history of computing—roughly the late 1970s through the mid-1980s—when ordinary people could sit down at a keyboard and make a machine do something it hadn't done before. The Commodore 64, the BBC Micro, the Apple II: these were limited, clunky, and profoundly empowering. For a generation, they opened the door to a kind of creative agency that felt almost magical.

That door closed, gradually, as software became professionalized. The gap between what you could imagine and what you could build widened into a canyon. If you wanted a tool that didn't exist, you needed a developer—or you went without.

Vibe coding is reopening that door.

The term refers to the practice of describing what you want in natural language and letting a generative AI—tools like Claude, ChatGPT, or Copilot—write the code for you. No syntax to memorize. No debugging by hand. You describe your intent, and working software comes back in seconds.

In this episode of Modem Futura, we explore what this shift means—not just technically, but humanly. I demonstrates tools he built from single prompts (also referred to as a a ‘one-shot’): a horizon-scanning app for futures research and a two-by-two uncertainty matrix used in strategic foresight. Both were functional on the first attempt. Both took less time to create than it takes to describe them.

The Inherited Power Problem

But the episode resists the temptation to treat this as a simple good-news story. The hosts dig into the real tensions: AI-generated code that no one fully understands, security vulnerabilities baked into apps that reach market before anyone reviews them, the new threat landscape of prompt injection, and the philosophical question of wielding power you haven't earned the literacy to evaluate—what the hosts call "inherited power."

There are also rich implications for education. Rather than relying on off-the-shelf apps that never quite fit, instructors and students alike can now build purpose-specific tools—and in doing so, develop a more grounded understanding of what these AI systems can and cannot do.

The deeper question the episode surfaces is less about code and more about agency. For decades, software was something done to us—platforms we adapted to, interfaces we learned, ecosystems we bought into. Vibe coding hints at a possible reversal: software shaped by the individual, for the individual, in the moment they need it.

Whether that future is liberating or reckless—or both—depends on the kind of literacy, caution, and imagination we bring to it.

Listen to the full conversation on Modem Futura.

Subscribe and Connect!

Subscribe to Modem Futura wherever you get your podcasts and connect with us on LinkedIn. Drop a comment, pose a question, or challenge an idea—because the future isn’t something we watch happen, it’s something we build together. The medium may still be the massage, but we all have a hand in shaping how it touches tomorrow.

🎧 Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/4rbOr9r

🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/28DMXJsM2kEBA2QDxuDmtJ?si=AJpR7zCpRgS2KCCfWwjjWg

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/lQGYaiThuBk?si=nRbHVEQk9dwL3gXr

🌐 Website: https://www.modemfutura.com/   

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Techno-Humans and the Energy Futures We’re Designing

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Techno-Humans and the Energy Futures We’re Designing

What if the clean energy transition isn’t just a technology problem—but a techno-human design challenge that determines who benefits, who’s left out, and whether our cities can thrive?

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Modem Futura Year in Review: What 2025 Taught Us About Being Human

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As we step toward 2026, we recorded a “Year in Review” episode of Modem Futura to pause the treadmill, look back, and ask a bigger question: what did this year reveal about the future of being human?

This wasn’t a victory lap. It was a reflection on what resonated, what surprised us, and what it means to build a future-focused show while the future keeps moving.

metrics matter… and they don’t

Yes, growth matters — it helps ideas travel. But podcast analytics are often incomplete and inconsistent, and they rarely capture what impact actually looks like. The most meaningful signals are still human: messages, emails, thoughtful disagreement, and reviews that help someone new discover the show.

“If you want to support the show: subscribing, sharing, and leaving a rating/review are still the most helpful actions.”
— Modem Futura

The themes that defined our year:

AI, beyond the hype: We kept returning to the same tension — generative tools are everywhere, but “AI” isn’t just a feature set. It’s a cultural force that shapes identity, agency, creativity, and values. We try hard to avoid both the hype machine and the doom loop, and instead stay in the messy middle where the most useful questions live.

Education and learning: We lean into what learning actually is (not just schooling), including John Dewey’s idea that humans are wired for inquiry, communication, construction, and expression. When AI arrives in every document and device, what does it do to those impulses — especially for kids?

Technology in the physical world: From autonomous‑vehicle safety systems that quietly drift out of calibration, to EVs and the persistent “flying car” dream, we explore what happens when shiny promises meet real‑world constraints.

Big questions, no apologies: Yes, we go there — simulation hypotheses, black holes, de‑extinction, space travel, and the edges of what science can (and can’t) explain. These episodes aren’t about “being right.” They’re about expanding the space of possible futures we can imagine.

If there’s one takeaway, it’s this: the future isn’t something that happens to us — it’s something we build together.That’s why we keep showing up each week: to create a shared space for curiosity, skepticism, wonder, and responsible imagination.

If you’ve been listening, thank you. If you’re new here, welcome. And if an episode sparked a thought you can’t shake — share it with a colleague, a student, a friend, or your community. As we step into 2026, we’re excited to keep exploring the possible, probable, and preferable futures — with you.

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We Turned One - plus Liquid Media, Work Slop, and the Road Ahead – Episode 53

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Year One, Human First: How We’re Building a Relational Future Podcast

When ChatGPT thinks you run a podcast gameshow - this is how it draws you ;)

Fifty‑two straight weeks, many guests, and countless “aha” moments later, Modem Futura just turned one. Instead of a victory lap, we used this episode to do what we always do: invite you into the studio while we make sense of the future—together.

From day one we set out to be relational rather than transactional. That means no polished lectures and no sugar‑coated takes. It means showing our work, making space for genuine curiosity, and trusting that a community grows when people feel like they’ve pulled up a chair at the table. Over the past year, that approach has taken us everywhere—from AI and AGI to bio‑hybrid robots, simulation hypotheses, autonomous mobility (including a Waymo ride‑along), space futures, and media theory, just to scratch the top of the list. Listeners have told us they’re using episodes to kick off team discussions, and yes, we’re even astronaut approved! (Thanks Cady). That’s rocket fuel!

This anniversary episode isn’t just about reflections we also look ahead. We probe “liquid media”—from tools like NotebookLM to Huxe’s 24/7 AI‑generated radio—and ask where convenience ends and exhaustion begins. We talk about “work slop,” the plausible‑sounding but soulless output AI can slip into workflows, and the hidden cognitive tax leaders pay to verify it. And to keep futures thinking playful, we run a “Futures Improv” lightning round: AI pets smarter than real ones? Brain‑to‑brain headbands at work? Meditation‑mandated robotaxis? Jurassic Park on the Moon? The point isn’t to predict perfectly—it’s to stretch how we think so we can exercise our radical creativity. (Maybe this should become a reoccurring segment? - I’ll need to craft up a quick theme song I think… )

What’s on the calendar for next year? Expect deeper dives into human‑centered AI, experiments with spatial and wearable interfaces (Vision Pro, Meta’s glasses), and conversations that foreground care—for people, institutions, and futures worth having. And as Andrew’s new book AI and the Art of Being Human lands, we’ll keep exploring how technology can amplify, not erode, what makes us…us.

Join us:

  • Listen to the anniversary episode and subscribe on your favorite app

  • Comment with one idea we should explore next—or what we should put in the “empty chair” on non‑guest weeks

  • If the show sparked a conversation where you work, tell us how. We’ll highlight examples in a future episode.

If you believe better futures are built through candid, caring conversation, you’re in the right place.

Subscribe and Connect!

Subscribe to Modem Futura on a favorite podcast platform, follow on LinkedIn, and join the conversation by sharing thoughts and questions. The medium may still be the massage, but everyone has a chance to shape how it kneads modern culture—and to decide what kind of global village we ultimately build.

🎧 Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/48oB1QS

🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1H29Q1LnP8oL7LER1gS6wa?si=5j97IKzGSjGJFlZSQMS-hg

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/FX0DmYgIe0w

🌐 Website: https://www.modemfutura.com/

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Osaka Expo 2025 Futures Lab: an inside look with Jamey Wetmore – Episode 36

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Why World’s Fairs Still Matter: Lessons from Osaka Expo 2025

Jamey Wetmore returns fresh from Osaka Expo 2025 to reveal how today’s World’s Fairs blend high-tech theater, geopolitical salesmanship and unexpected moments of awe—prompting a lively Modem Futura debate on what truly human-centered innovation looks like, and how that is shaping the future of science, technology, and society.

How relevant is a World’s Fair in 2025? Very, according to Dr. Jamey Wetmore, who just shepherded 17 Arizona State University students through ten exhilarating days at Osaka Expo 2025. In the latest Modem Futura episode, Jamey tells Andrew and me that today’s expos feel less like gadget bazaars and more like collaboration theme-parks where nations stage immersive stories about the futures they want to build. That subtle shift—from showing off products to showcasing partnerships and values—framed every pavilion we visited. Jordan invited visitors to sip cardamom coffee on real desert sand beneath a fiber-optic night-sky, urging “hospitality as technology.” Belgium’s AI-driven “digital-twin” ballet asked how personal data can dance alongside us. A three-torso android in the Future-of-Life pavilion provoked uncomfortable laughter—and deeper reflection—on transhumanist dreams. Even the U.S. pavilion’s rousing anthem “Together, Together” highlighted cooperation, though Jamey notes the message now feels out of step with recent geopolitical rhetoric.

The student experience was just as revealing. To tame sensory overload (20-25,000 steps a day is normal), they used bingo cards to track recurring buzzwords—sustainability, inclusivity, circularity—and morning debriefs to translate spectacle into critical insight. Their big takeaway? Grand visions only matter when paired with concrete pathways for everyday people. That insight crystallized during a lighthearted encounter with Kawasaki’s rideable four-legged “lion” robot: delightful, yes, but what problem does a robo-lion truly solve (not really sure, but 100% sure I want one)? Contrast that with Kubota’s autonomous farming systems, which demonstrate practical routes to food security under climate stress.

Jamey also reminded us that every expo sits on a historical continuum. Chicago 1893 electrified night-time. New York 1939 sold a “World of Tomorrow,” and the 1964 fair embedded a certain American exceptionalism in Disney’s It’s a Small World. Osaka 2025 inherits—and interrogates—that lineage, forcing visitors to ask: Who gets to define tomorrow? For our students, and for all of us, that question was as important as any hologram or robot on display.

Ultimately, the episode argues that expos retain power because they collapse culture, commerce, politics, and dreams into a single walkable space. They reveal not only what technologies we can build, but which stories about humanity we choose to elevate. As you listen, consider how your own work contributes to—or challenges—the futures on parade in Osaka. And if you’ve ever dismissed World’s Fairs as relics, this conversation might just change your mind.

🎧 Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3HDqx4S

📺 Watch us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModemFutura

If you’d like to dive deeper, jump into the link and listen to the podcast or watch the YouTube video. Join us as we explore the forces shaping our collective future and the urgent need to keep human values at the heart of innovation.

Subscribe and Connect!

Subscribe to Modem Futura on a favorite podcast platform, follow on LinkedIn, and join the conversation by sharing thoughts and questions. The medium may still be the massage, but everyone has a chance to shape how it kneads modern culture—and to decide what kind of global village we ultimately build.

🎧 Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/3HDqx4S

🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1cQjbMJaPejpfLJsldek0a?si=NSW0cDCwR_aOtT1jmSJtzA

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/FYYyVuhtjw4

🌐 Website: https://www.modemfutura.com/